The number of unique mobile
subscribers in Sub-Saharan Africa will pass the half billion mark in 2020 as
mobile services become increasingly affordable and accessible to millions of
currently unconnected citizens across the region.
According to ‘Mobile Economy 2014: Sub-Saharan
Africa’, the new GSMA report issued today at the Mobile 360-Africa event in
Cape Town, the region has been the world’s fastest-growing mobile region over
the last five years in terms of both unique mobile subscribers and mobile connections,
and is forecast to continue to lead global growth through 2020. Unique mobile
subscriber penetration as a percentage of the region’s population is forecast
to rise to 49 per cent by this point.
“The mobile industry has
transformed the lives of millions of people across Sub-Saharan Africa,
providing not just connectivity but also an essential gateway to a wide range
of healthcare, education and financial services”
“The mobile industry has
transformed the lives of millions of people across Sub-Saharan Africa,
providing not just connectivity but also an essential gateway to a wide range
of healthcare, education and financial services,” said Anne Bouverot, Director
General of the GSMA. “As today’s report shows, millions of additional citizens
in the region will become mobile subscribers over the next six years, with many
being able to access the internet for the first time via low-cost smartphones
and mobile broadband networks. Operators and other ecosystem players, as well
as governments and regulators, all have a role to play in ensuring that
affordable mobile services can be extended across the region.”
The World’s Fastest-Growing
Mobile Region
The Sub-Saharan Africa region
includes 46 countries in total. The six largest markets, in order of size, are
Nigeria, South Africa, Ethiopia, Kenya, Democratic Republic of Congo and
Tanzania, which together account for over half of the region’s unique mobile
subscriber base. There were 329 million unique mobile subscribers in
Sub-Saharan Africa at the end of June 2014, equivalent to 38 per cent of the
region’s total population. This unique subscriber base is forecast to grow by 7
per cent per year (CAGR) to 2020 to reach just over half a billion and account
for 49 per cent of the population. By this point, Sub-Saharan Africa will have
overtaken Europe to become the world’s second-largest mobile market after Asia
Pacific.
The number of mobile
connections1 in the region stood at 608 million in June 2014, forecast to
rise to 975 million by 2020. The region is seeing a rapid migration to mobile
broadband networks; 3G accounted for only 17 per cent of total connections in
June 2014, but is forecast to account for more than half of the total by 2020
as local operators deploy new mobile broadband networks and smartphones become
more affordable. 4G adoption is at an early stage in the region today, but is
expected to account for 4 per cent of total connections by 2020.
Sub-Saharan Africa is also
expected to see the strongest growth of any global region in the number of
smartphone connections2 over the next six years, reaching 525 million by
2020. The growing adoption of smartphones along with other data-capable devices
such as tablets and dongles is contributing to a significant increase in mobile
data traffic. According to Ericsson3, mobile data traffic in Sub-Saharan Africa
will grow 20-fold between 2013 to 2019, rising from 37,500 terabytes per month
in 2013 to 764,000 terabytes per month by 2019. This growth rate is twice the
global growth rate over the same period.
Powering the African Economies
The mobile industry is a
valuable and growing contributor to the regional economies of Sub-Saharan
Africa. In 2013, the mobile industry contributed 5.4 per cent to overall gross
domestic product (GDP) in the region, equivalent to US$75 billion; this
included a direct contribution by mobile operators of US$27 billion or 1.9 per
cent of GDP4. It is estimated that by 2020 the mobile industry will contribute
US$104 billion to the region’s economy, representing at that point 6.2 per cent
of the region’s projected GDP.
The industry is also a
significant source of employment and job creation in the region. In 2013, the
mobile ecosystem directly employed nearly 2.4 million people and indirectly
supported a further 3.7 million jobs. The industry also makes a large
contribution to public funding in the form of general taxation (US$13 billion
in 2013), and through further contributions via licence and regulatory fees and
spectrum auctions.
Operators in the region
invested more than US$45 billion over the last six years (2008 to 2013) to
expand coverage and increase network capacity. Capital expenditure over the
next seven years (2014 to 2020) is forecast to total around US$97 billion as
operators accelerate investments in order to meet rising demand for mobile data
services.
Connecting the Unconnected
Despite strong subscriber
growth in recent years, Sub-Saharan Africa is still the world’s least
penetrated mobile region and local operators face several challenges in their
efforts to expand network coverage on a cost-effective basis to unconnected
populations. According to the report, the implementation of commercially agreed
network sharing deals and ensuring the timely release of Digital Dividend
spectrum will be important factors in achieving this goal.
Due to the lack of fixed-line
infrastructure in the region, mobile is established as the primary means of
accessing the internet. At the end of 2013, there were almost 150 million
individuals using mobile devices to access the internet across the region, over
60 per cent of which were doing so via 2G devices. The mobile internet
penetration rate in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase to 37 per cent
by 2020, with an additional 240 million people across the region becoming
mobile internet users over the period.
“To fully realise the
transformative potential of mobile in Sub-Saharan Africa, the mobile industry
requires a supportive regulatory framework that provides long-term stability
and encourages investment,” added Bouverot. “This includes the need for clear
and transparent spectrum management processes, as well as tackling high levels
of taxation in some markets. Addressing these issues will allow mobile to power
a fresh wave of growth and innovation in this fast-developing region.”
