RISKMAP 2015: Political Uncertainty And Low Oil Price Pose Risks To Nigeria’s Success Story

Control Risks , the global business risk consultancy, today publishes its annual RiskMap report, an established authoritative guide and key reference point for policymakers and business leaders seeking to plot global trends over the coming year. RiskMap highlights the most significant underlying trends in global risk and security, and provides a detailed view from the markets that will matter most in 2015. 

•          Diversification of the economy remains crucial to improve the sustainability of West Africa’s economic growth 

•          Heightened political turbulence following the postponement of the presidential poll to March threatens to dent investor confidence

•          Deepening political divisions between Nigeria’s regions over the presidential poll and the absence of a clear front-runner increase the risk of a contested outcome and a turbulent aftermath

 •          The drop in oil revenue will test Nigeria’s economy over the next year and will show the extent to which the fast-growing non-oil sectors have become truly independent from the oil economy

 •          The incoming administration in May will have to address a cash-flow crisis, the threat from Islamist militant group Boko Haram while maintaining stability in the oil-producing Niger delta and stemming social unrest

Introducing RiskMap 2015, Tom Griffin, Managing Director West Africa, Control Risks, said:

“2015 so far has demonstrated the political constraints to Africa’s economic growth story. Across Africa, governments have faced difficulties in tackling key issues such as the excessive reliance on commodities such as oil, bottlenecks in the economy, security challenges from criminal and militant groups and the need to improve governance. In many places, private-sector growth frequently occurs despite government rather than because of it.”

“The postponement of Nigeria’s elections has unnerved some investors and made others delay their final investment decisions. The economic impact of that has been shown by the drop in the naira. The genuinely competitive elections are a critical juncture on Nigeria’s path towards becoming a mature democracy, but closely contested polls are uncharted territory for the country’s political system. Nonetheless, Nigeria has an impressive capacity for weathering impending crises and we believe that the upcoming elections will be no different.”

“Regardless of the outcome of the polls, the incoming administration will have to contend with multiple challenges: resurrecting the oil sector reform agenda, managing a likely cash-flow crisis in government, dealing with the threat from Islamist militant group Boko Haram and maintaining stability in the restive Niger delta.”

“West Africa will remain a piracy hotspot in 2015, led by Nigeria, where maritime operators are bracing for the fallout from the contested general elections. Much will also depend on how the future administration manages the Niger delta’s former rebels.”

“The terrorist threat will continue to evolve tactically and geographically given the adaptability of Islamist militant groups operating in West Africa. Islamist militant group Boko Haram will grab further headlines in 2015, but faces limitations outside its north-eastern heartland and has come under pressure from the Nigerian government and regional military offensive. This however increases the risk that the group will lash out outside its northeastern heartland. Meanwhile, transnational terrorists operating across the Sahel-Sahara will continue to exploit the region’s ungoverned spaces but will struggle to make inroads further south and will remain a limited direct threat in Nigeria.”

For more information on RiskMap and to download the map and report please click here: https://riskmap.controlrisks.com.

#AHES2015: Welcome Address For the African Higher Education Summit

 By Aicha Bah Diallo

Welcome:

National Presidents; Ministers and dignitaries here present; heads of delegations; our donor partners, vice chancellors, academics, students, members of the media; those present here today and indeed our global audience through the use of information technology:

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen institutional partners and the sectors represented here, for responding in numbers, to our invitation to be present and part of our vision for inclusive socio-economic development for Africa through the transformation of higher education.

I would like to thank our summit partners for the vision that we have shared that has culminated in the creation of a continental platform for us to deliberate on the future of this critical sector:

TrustAfrica

The government of Senegal

African Union Commission (AUC),

Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa (CODESRIA),

United Nations Africa Institute for Development and Economic Planning (IDEP),

Association of African Universities (AAU),

The African Development Bank (AfDB).

The National Research Foundation (NRF) of South Africa

Association for Development in African Education (ADEA)

The Carnegie Corporation of New York (CCNY)

MasterCard Foundation and

The World Bank

I thank Hon. Professor Mary Teuw Niane and his team at the Ministry of higher education and research; members of the interior ministry and foreign affairs for the time and effort devoted, to the preparation and organization of this meeting.

Your unwavering commitment is the type of dedication that we would wish all Ministers would demonstrate, so that we can follow your example.

To many of us, TrustAfrica was and is still possibly an unknown quantity. TrustAfrica is one of those rare African organisations currently engaged in an ongoing process of leveraging philanthropic resources from both the continent and the global North. TrustAfrica works to support and promote African agency on continental initiatives such as this Summit.

In terms of size we are indeed a very small organization, with a tendency to punch above our weight and our strength is drawn from our deep conviction for Africa to achieve shared development and inclusive democratic governance.

We accept that we do not hold a monopoly on this, and we have friends and partners helping us along the way to realise this grand vision for our continent. I am privileged to call everyone here a FRIEND of TrustAfrica based on your willingness to participate in this game-changing process that will produce a strategy that will take this sector into the next 50 years.

Thank You and welcome.

Having embarked on a journey this long, with a vision so big, I am excited to stand here today reflecting on the road travelled to get here.

As the Chair of the Board of Trustees at TrustAfrica, I have watched anxiously for a period of more than two years as the architects developed the plans and broke-ground for this, the African higher education summit.

In 2010, TrustAfrica held the first of a series of national convenings in Botswana. Little did I know that the African Union would someday utilize the outcomes of this initiative to feed into the 2016-2020 African Union: African higher education continental strategy.

I am excited by the vision of the African Union Commission, represented here by Dr Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma.

The African Union through Agenda 2063, has captured the spirit in which we all need to come together to build our continent, to take on the burden of asking the difficult questions and doing the hard work ourselves as Africans.

By developing this strategy the African Union has embraced the principles upon which the OAU was founded by Africa’s fore fathers in 1963.

It may have taken 50 years, but by developing a global strategy to optimize the use of Africa’s resources and to encourage stakeholders to learn from the past and build on the progress made to ensure positive socio economic transformation, we as Africans are now taking the continent forward. Embracing Pan-Africanism, jointly seeking collective solutions to continental problems and pursuing the ideals of African unity!

And now that the stage is set, it is NOW time for us to do the work!

At TrustAfrica we believe that improved access to quality Higher Education for all of our citizens could be the missing link inhibiting the realisation of an inclusive Africa Rising.

 Our work in promoting Equitable Development, Democratic Governance and enhancing African Philanthropy are all predicated upon progress made in higher education sector, as the cradle of skills development, knowledge generation and production.

For this reason we chose not to sit back and watch experts lead the process.

We have since 2010 been facilitating collaborations among African institutions and building relationships with like-minded partners such as the Carnegie Corporation, towards the creation of a continental platform to spearhead the urgent transformation of the sector.

At the moment African higher education has evolved very little and has thrived on relatively small changes. However global and technological innovations demand a realization that higher education is on the verge of a major transformation and for us here on the continent we have to embrace the change lest we are left behind again.

It is becoming increasingly important to think about what the industry might look like in 10 years, 50 years and beyond.

The value of determining our own path is that we empower Africa with a collective voice that will be heard on a global stage.

The post-2015 sustainable development agenda is upon us, with 2015 marking the end of the Millennium Development Goals and the launch of a new global framework for development.

This Summit presents a unique opportunity for us as stakeholders to work together to seek sustainable solutions for the development of the continent, understanding that education has many purposes, such as preparation for the labor market, preparation for democratic citizenship, personal development, and the development of a broad, advanced knowledge base.

Evidence shows that universities and research institutions play a significant role in development, but we are faced with the dilemma of whether or not higher education should be a development goal in its own right, or an agent to address other development goals?

It is therefore, not enough for us to spend our time here, on what we already know, but to look forward and reflect on new opportunities, possibilities and what we should be doing differently to enhance our beloved sector.

I was disappointed to learn from the reports done on the national convenings held by TrustAfrica between 2010 and 2014, that few administrators are being invited and participating in policy discussions on the sector, locally, regionally or continentally.

This needs to change. How can we promote change outside of policy? Such omissions result in rising gaps as policy is developed in isolation of those who should implement it.

Already there is need for an urgent conversation between the higher education sector and business. The absence of such a platform has resulted in the topical issues of graduate unemployment and unemployability.

How can policy ensure that business, especially foreign investors, are utilizing local skills not only as general labourers but in key decision making positions.

It is also time to consider ways of closing the finance gap through collaboration by developing more integrated and sophisticated relationships between sectors in the next 10 years?.

We all know that national governments have not allocated adequate financial resources to the sector because of the competing demands for these resources.

As a philanthropic organisation TrustAfrica believes that Africa’s different forms of giving need to be encouraged and strengthened to enhance locally-driven development especially in the development of the higher education sector.

We acknowledge the various scholarship initiatives, but these on their own will not contribute towards a more systematic transformation of the sector. We need mechanisms that can deploy financial resources towards enhancing institutional governance of our universities, research institutions, promoting and investing in the study of Science, Technology and Mathematics.

Therefore, we hope to stem the tide of disinvestment by governments and also encourage African philanthropy to step in and provide the necessary funding, hopefully in programs that suit the national good and meet continental needs, advancing equitable development.

It will be critical for many institutions to change their funding models to be able to continue offering required services.

This calls for a shift in mind sets towards an appreciation that higher education institutions need to transform themselves to meet demands beyond theory by enhancing processes of tangible transformation.

The future indeed looks bright for higher education when it comes to the possibilities of technology.

It is critical that individuals at all levels of higher education begin to think futuristically about how these technologies can be deployed.

Otherwise, we risk being controlled by, rather than in control of, the changes.

As technology moves forward, the higher education experience – both face to face and online will transform dramatically.

Technology’s impact on higher education will see the sector move to meet the needs of none traditional students, adult learners, address gender mainstreaming and in some instances resolve the challenges created by declining budgets.

But modern technologies should not be adopted at the expense of traditional knowledge systems as it is our collective burden to preserve our heritage and build trust in African initiatives.

I believe that the lives and livelihoods of African and indeed any other people are shaped by what they know about where they come from.

I am proud to declare TrustAfrica’s commitment to the transformation of the African higher education sector.

It is fitting that our emblem is the acacia tree. We realise that this process of transformation will take more than one actor hence, the need for continuing gatherings such as this summit, to ensure that we have consensus and are learning from one another.

Looking into the future, I hope higher education institutions? will pave the way for broad based African unity, by looking beyond individual borders and adopting learning programmes that promote integration.

Africa is a continental union with 8 Regional Economic Communities.

It is the youngest continent of the world. In 2050, half of Africa’ s population will be under 24 years old and by 2100 almost half of the world’s youth will be African.

It is a continent which has a lot of natural resources, but its greatest wealth is its human resources, in particular its youth.

Therefore, to meet the challenge of sustainable development, Africa will need well educated young girls and boys who will be able to create their own jobs and compete with their peers in the world.

After-all, the challenges of today are also opportunities for us to make a mark on the continent and to harness our collective energies.

Friends. Welcome to this- the 2015 African higher education summit.

Thank you!

#Rights365: How Should We Address Human Rights Issue In Africa?

Today, the world observes the International Human Rights Day.

The Human Rights Day as declared by the United Nations (UN) on 10 December, 1948 is meant to commemorate the UN General Assembly’s adoption and proclamation of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) which enshrines the global rights to which all human beings are inherently entitled.

In all, there are 30 basic human rights which are considered as moral principles or norm that describe certain standards of human behaviour. These rights include the right to life and security of persons, abolition of slavery and slave trade in all forms,   fair treatment by fair courts, right to fair trial, right to privacy,  freedom of movement,  freedom of thought and expression, right to social security and the right to play.

To mark this year’s celebration, the United Nations has encouraged every person to make Human Rights a round-the-clock activity. With the theme, Human Rights 365 (#Rights365), people all over the world are enjoined to consider everyday a Human Rights Day and ensure everyone is entitled to the full range of human rights. It also connotes that human rights belong equally to each of us and bind us together as a global community with the same ideals and values.

Coincidentally, this year’s celebration marks the end of the 16 Days of Activism for No Violence against Women and Children, an official line that offers everyone the opportunity to show their non-tolerance to violence against women and children. However, like most developing nations, African nations are yet to entirely uphold the terms of the Universal human rights.

African governments habitually use laws to silence critical voices of journalists, activists or lawyers to deprive the public of information about the misconduct of officials, hereby violating the fundamental rule of human rights on the basis of freedom of expression. Issues of child labor, sexual violence, insecurity and sit-tight governments are still prevalent in many African countries, evidence that African countries are yet to fully implement the tenets of the universal human rights declaration. The recent sentencing of 188 supporters of ousted 

President Mohammed Morsi to death without a fair trial is another reason more attention should be paid to issues concerning human rights in Africa.

The death sentence of the suspected brotherhood member is not surprising as many African countries are yet to support the African Court for Human and Peoples’ Rights (AfCHPR) ­– the only judicial arm of the African Union (AU) that allows individuals and NGOs to bring human rights related cases directly to the Court to be tried fairly without impunity. Only seven countries – Burkina Faso, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Malawi, Mali, Rwanda and host United Republic of Tanzania have pledged their allegiance to this court. Nevertheless, a number of African countries are working towards ensuring that the rights of their citizens are fully implemented.

In Namibia for example, a five year human rights plan was launched to entrench the principles of human rights effectively. ‘Our people today feel discriminated because they don’t own lands. Today the children of those who colonised us and took away the land sit on the land and are reluctant to give land… As we talk about human rights let us also talk about land’, Namibian president, Hifikepunye Pohamba, said at the launch of the country’s human rights action plan.

In war-infested Somalia, the Secretary-General of the National Union of Somali Journalists (NUSOJ), Mohamed Ibrahim calls for the need to end violation. According to him, journalists receive threats to life or are assassinated, compromising the ability of journalists to report freely on what is happening on the ground without fear of reprisal.

In Nigeria also, the Association of Senior Staff of Banks, Insurance and Financial Institutions (ASSBIFI), have also called for the end of modern day slavery. According to the association’s National President, Comrade Sunday Salako, ‘There is an urgent need to address the scourge of modern day slavery through new binding international regulations that restore worker protection in Nigeria’.

Zimbabwe Lawyers for Human Rights (ZLHR) also said that they want the government to take urgent measures to ensure that people access adequate and clean water.

All these requests and much more that will be pouring out today emphasized the need to ensure that governments and individuals respect the rights of every person. This year’s Human rights Day therefore calls for everyone to express their unified opposition against human rights abuse and work towards the effective implementation of the declaration in the life of every person. Violation Africa director at Human Rights Watch, Daniel Bekele has said, ‘This is a critical moment for international policy makers to say loudly and clearly that those who kill, torture and rape will one day face a court of law. The time of impunity is over’.

Africans need to make stronger commitments to human rights issues if the continent is to make further economic and democratic advances. Clamping down press and sit-tight leaders syndrome must be abolished. The judicial system must also be strengthened to make the court a successful human rights protection mechanism that can ensure and establish the fundamental human rights of any person irrespective of their age, race or social status.

Most importantly, implementation of Human Rights must be every day, a 365 days affair.

Breaking the Chain of Corruption on African Development

‘Corruption is a threat to development, democracy and stability’

- United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.

As the world celebrates the international Anti-Corruption day today, 9 December, the attention of individuals, national governments and international organisations is once again drawn to the need to stand against corruption globally.

The theme for this year’s Anti-corruption Day urges everyone to break the chain of corruption.

Coincidentally, this year’s anniversary came at the heels of the recently released Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), the leading indicator of public sector corruption that offers a yearly snapshot of the degree of corruption all over the globe. As in the past, Africa fared worse on the list again this year – an indication that little has been done to curb the growing menace of corruption.

According to the TI corruption index, five of the 10 most corrupt nations in the world are in Africa. These countries are: Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Libya and Eritrea. Interestingly, none of the 48 countries in sub-Sahara Africa were part of the 10 least corrupt nations. The first African nation to surface on the list of 175 countries surveyed globally was Botswana at number 31, making it the least corrupt country in Africa. The Southern African nation is closely followed by Namibia and Rwanda which shared the 55th rank on the index.

While African nations like Egypt, Ivory Coast and Mali are among the notable countries that improved on the TI index; Somalia, Sudan and South Sudan were positioned among the five most corrupt countries in the world. The African countries at the bottom of the index are all war-ridden and from East Africa region, making it perhaps the most corrupt region in Africa. Unassumingly, most developed economies in Africa like Nigeria, Angola and Kenya were also below average on the TI Corruption perception Index.

The report shows that, perhaps, efforts by international, governmental and non-governmental organisations to tackle corruption have yielded little or no tangible result over the years. While many African governments have in the past pledged their commitment to stop the scourge of corruption over the years, it is apparent that little has been achieved as many of these territories are still riddled with corruption which has debarred necessary developmental changes in the lives of citizens. For instance, in Somalia, corruption has collapsed the economy and this has resulted in massive human migrations and much of the population live in conditions of severe poverty.

According to the 2013 Afrobarometer report, which surveyed 51,000 people in 34 African countries, African governments have faltered in the fight to curb corruption. Developed African economies like Nigeria and South Africa were perceived to have grown corrupt practices compared to countries like Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Senegal and Zambia, where people believe that their governments are making gains in curbing public sector corruption.

In the same vein, while countries like Egypt improved on the TI Corruption perception index (moved from 114 to 97), evidence shows that despite the ongoing socio-economic and political reforms, the Maghreb nation is still battling corruption and cronyism.

Another example of an infested corrupt African nation is oil rich but improvised Angola. Although the country is one of the two topmost oil-producing countries in sub-Saharan Africa, most of her people still live in dire poverty and the nation’s wealth is in the hands of the minority rich, including the daughter of its President, Isabel Dos Santos who has been acclaimed one of the richest female billionaires in Africa.

Lack of checks and balances, insufficient institutional capacity and a culture of impunity has been identified as one of the major factors promoting corruption in Angola and even though the country has been able to attract foreign investment over the years, corrupt practices still made it one of the most difficult places to do business in Africa. The situation is not different from what is obtainable in faraway Somalia where political instability and lawlessness, fueled by the activities of the Al-Shabaab militant group have made economic and social freedom in the country a foregone benefit and the situation keeps getting worse as very few African countries are doing well to tackle corruption. 

This is because corruption is pervasive in the corridor of power and even in homes – the primary agent of socialisation. From petty corruption to cases of high-level government malfeasance, the circle of corruption in Africa knows no bound. Embezzlement, trade mispricing, lack of transparency, facilitation payments (bribery), illicit financial outflows are some of the agents fueling corruption in Africa.

Another common factor aiding corruption in most African nations is the lack of information on where to report corrupt practices and where there are agencies and institutions created, most people believe that no disciplinary action would be taken. Corruption therefore remains a serious act that needs to be curbed to move Africa forward.

Corruption calls for serious attention because the act is at the expense of ordinary citizens, especially those who are poor and vulnerable. It beckons on desired change because it impedes development and promotes poverty, inequality and injustice. According to Transparency International, ‘Poorly equipped schools, counterfeit medicine and elections decided by money are just some of the consequences of public sector corruption. Bribes and backroom deals don’t just steal resources from the most vulnerable – they undermine justice and economic development and destroy public trust in government and leaders.’

These are just some of the damages corruption does to development.

As the world commemorate this year’s Anti-corruption Day urges everyone to break the chain of corruption, it is time to make anti-corruption everyone’s business. It is time to start asking question using the policy or law in place to ensure accountability that will create self-reliance and break the chains of poverty. When the chain of corruption is broken, it will yield great trust that will usher in more businesses and investment from development partners both on the local and international level. It will also create a safe and conducive environment for all and also give room for sustainable development.